2026 Midterm Election Scenario Playground

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2026 House scenario

2024 result baselineNo national swingAll assumptions at default

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HouseD 215 / R 220No D seats change

SenateD 47 / R 53No D seats change

History · PresidentD 226 / R 312No D EV change

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Democratic seats2153 short of control

Republican control218 to controlD 0 / R 0 from baseline

Republican seats220At control threshold

More chamber details

Threshold218218-seat majority threshold

Net from baselineD 0 / R 0Updates live with chamber assumptions

Flipped districts039 low-data seats flagged

Vacant seatsV 4Current roster vacancies, separate from simulated control

House scenario

Assumptions

National House swingNo national swing

Neutral baselineDefault

House heuristic sliders

District environment

5 inputs

House heuristic sliders are not sourced forecasts. They apply transparent state and race weights to the sourced election baseline so similarly sized slider moves can affect seats differently.

Generic turnoutDefault

Neutral turnoutHeuristic

Weighted by district competitiveness and low-data status.

Incumbency advantageDefault

No incumbency shiftHeuristic

Applies toward the current incumbent party where a roster incumbent exists.

Open-seat penaltyDefault

No open-seat shiftHeuristic

Applies only where the current roster has no incumbent.

Candidate qualityDefault

No quality edgeHeuristic

Generic quality stress test, strongest in competitive districts.

Presidential coattailsDefault

No coattailsHeuristic

A heuristic downballot coattail effect weighted by competitiveness.

Scenario presets

House preset library

No national swing

This chamber slider applies a uniform national swing to public election-return baselines. Candidate quality, local issues, and redistricting effects are not forecasted.

House map

119th districts

TiltLeanLikelySafeFlaggedCustom

State zoomDistrict selector

Map coverage and data flags

Rendered435/435Voting districts

DelegatesSeparateDC-AL, PR-AL

Flags39Uncontested / low data

SourceUS Census119th district boundaries

Use the arrow keys to move between districts, Home or End to jump to the first or last district, and Enter or Space to zoom into a district.

Loading House districts

SelectedPA-7Pennsylvania

Simulated winnerRepublican / R +1.0No flip

Data flagsClear403,314 recorded votes

State focusPennsylvania

D7 / R10 / 1 flagged

Selected district

PA-7

No flip

BaselineR +1.0Republican

SimulatedRepublicanR +1.0

Flip statusHeldHeld by baseline control party

Latest result2024Regular general election

Distance from flipping1.0 pts

Customize this district

State overridePennsylvania

Default

Shared across President, House, and Senate. Positive values move the local margin toward Democrats.

Local turnoutNo local shiftR +10 · neutral · D +10Partisan shiftNo local shiftR +10 · neutral · D +10Candidate qualityNo local shiftR +10 · neutral · D +10

District overridePA-7

Default

Changes only this district; national and other local assumptions stay intact.

Local turnoutNo local shiftR +10 · neutral · D +10Candidate qualityNo local shiftR +10 · neutral · D +10Incumbency / open-seat status

Applied assumption0.0 pts

National chamber swingUniform adjustment to this district baseline0.0 pts

Member profile and seat context

Ryan MackenzieRepublican / current representativePortrait: U.S. Congress Bioguide

District codePA-7PA-07

StatePAPennsylvania

District number7House district

Current memberRyan MackenzieM001230

Incumbent partyRepublican

First served / tenure20251.5 years served

Service startJan 3, 2025First chamber service date in roster source

Current termJan 3, 2025 - Jan 3, 2027Current term dates from roster source

Incumbent runningNot sourcedFuture filing or retirement status is not in the current dataset

Vote history, candidates, and source

Recorded votesD 199,626 / R 203,6880 other / 403,314 total

Major-party candidatesD: Susan Wild / R: Ryan E. MackenzieLatest completed House result where candidate rows are available

District partisan baselineRepublican / R +1.0Model baseline from latest House district D-R margin; presidential/PVI baseline is not yet ingested

Latest vote totals2

Ryan E. MackenzieRepublican / 50.5%203,688
Susan WildDemocratic / 49.5%199,626

Data source / freshnessmit-house-1976-20242024 result vintage / 2024 district returns aggregated from candidate-level MIT Election Data and Science Lab House data.

Advanced analysis and methodology

House summary

Sensitivity view

No national swing

Seat change from baseline

D 0R 0

Flipped seats0

Closest districtsMargin

CA-13CaliforniaD +0.1
IA-1IowaR +0.2
CA-45CaliforniaD +0.2
OH-9OhioD +0.6
ME-2MaineD +0.7
CO-8ColoradoR +0.7

Flip firstCurrent

No seats flip in this scenario.

Path to 218D needs 3

IA-1Iowa0.2 pts
CO-8Colorado0.7 pts
AK at-largeAlaska1.0 pts
PA-7Pennsylvania1.0 pts
PA-10Pennsylvania1.3 pts

Biggest assumption effectDriver

No nonzero assumption effects in this scenario.

Deep dive: state patterns, control context, and data flags

Majority importanceRanked

CA-13CaliforniaR target
IA-1IowaR buffer
CA-45CaliforniaR target
OH-9OhioR target
CO-8ColoradoR buffer
AK at-largeAlaskaR buffer

Seat gain/loss by stateNet

No state-level seat gains or losses in this scenario.

Delegation volatilityFlags

California52 districts0 flip / 7 close
New York26 districts0 flip / 3 close
Pennsylvania17 districts0 flip / 3 close
Virginia11 districts0 flip / 3 close
Arizona9 districts0 flip / 2 close
Colorado8 districts0 flip / 2 close
Iowa4 districts0 flip / 2 close
Ohio15 districts0 flip / 2 close

Data flags39

AL-3AlabamaR +97.9
AL-4AlabamaR +98.8
AL-5AlabamaR +95.4
CA-12CaliforniaD +100.0
CA-16CaliforniaD +100.0
CA-20CaliforniaR +100.0
CA-34CaliforniaD +100.0
CA-37CaliforniaD +78.3

Method & dataFormula · sources · validation

Simulation formulalatest race margin + chamber swing + visible heuristics + state/local override

Election returnsMIT Election Data and Science LabVersion 15.0, released 2026-03-09; current baseline year 2024 · retrieved 2026-07-02Open dataset

Coverage435/435 districts · 2024 returnsRace totals use MIT totalvotes when available; candidate-vote differences from totalvotes are listed in the generated validation report.

Current membersCongress Legislators rosterGitHub main branch snapshot cached 2026-07-02Open roster

InterpretationSourced baseline, heuristic stress testReturns and rosters are sourced. Presets, candidate-quality effects, and user overrides are exploratory inputs.

District boundary resources District presidential/PVI baselines and future filing status are not yet ingested.